South Africans continue to move from rural areas to urban centres with Lightstone’s data from 2013 to 2023 suggesting subtle shifts in population where new housing stock was registered with the Deeds Office and the different price brands.
According to Hayley Ivins-Downes, Managing Executive Real Estate at Lightstone, SA’s population grew from just under 54 million in 2013 to nearly 62 million in 2023.
“The country’s urban population grew by 15.3% from 34 million to 39 million and the rural population by 9.6% from 17.5 million to 19 million in the same period,” she says.
The most significant growth in percentage terms took place in the areas adjacent to urban centres – a 46.2% jump from 2.4 million to 3.5 million translating into a shift from 4.4% to 5.7% of the total population living in areas adjacent to urban centres.
Correspondingly, the rural population has dropped from 33.3% to 31% while the urban percentage remained unchanged at 63%.
The Western Cape’s urban areas recorded the most population growth in percentage terms (22% between 2013 and 2023) while Limpopo and Gauteng lead the way (106% and 105% respectively) in growth around urban centres. The Free State and the North West recorded net rural area losses.
Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and Gauteng recorded the largest numbers of people moving from rural areas to areas adjacent to urban boundaries, she says. The City of Cape Town was the only municipality in the Western Cape to appear in the top 20.
The City of Cape Town was the only municipality in the Western Cape to appear in the top 20 having added most properties since 2019 with 57 250 new properties registered at the Deeds Office. However, four of the top six cities gaining the newest properties were in Gauteng with the City of Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, the City of Tshwane, and Lesedi joined by KwaZulu-Natal’s eThekwini in the top six.
Lesedi, south-east of Johannesburg, was the quickest growing in percentage terms.
While volume changes to stock inevitably came from the major metros, with Lesedi aside, the percentage growth (new stock as a percentage increase on old stock) since 2019, told a different story with a greater proportion of homes registered in smaller towns, and mostly in the lower price ranges, other than the standout semigration destinations.
uMshwati in KwaZulu-Natal, about 120km northwest of Durban, led the way with a 57% jump, followed by Umzimvubu in the Eastern Cape (55%), Nquthu in KwaZulu-Natal (43%) and Lesedi, southeast of Joburg in Gauteng (40%).
Ivins-Downes says that while the average value of new stock in these municipalities ranged from R144 000 in uMshwati to R600 000 in Nquthu, Drakenstein, the Western Cape led the way in terms of higher valued new stock properties. With its municipal seat in Paarl, Drakenstein’s stock volume in the Cape Winelands’ municipality increased by 13% since 2019, with the average value of new stock added R2.1 million.
“Other municipalities at the higher end included KwaDukuza in KwaZulu-Natal (11% increase, average value of new stock R2.7 million) and Maruleng in Limpopo (11% increase, average value of new stock R3.7 million). KwaDukuza, including Ballito, is in the hilly north coast of the province, and was previously known as Stanger, while Maruleng’s municipal seat is Hoedspruit, gateway to the Kruger National Park and many other private game reserves.”
Madibeng in North West, a platinum mining hub which includes Brits and the popular tourist area of Hartbeesfontein, has seen stock increase by 10% with levels nearing R1 million.
The Western Cape and Gauteng dominate the top four places in terms of stock registered in different price brands since 2019. KwaZulu-Natal comes in at fifth in three of the categories while the Western Cape is overweighted in the higher price bands. The likes of Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and the Free State appear in the lower price bands.
The City of Cape Town registered the greatest number of new properties in three bands – <R500 000, R1 million – R3 million, and >R3 million, while it registered the third most in the R500 000 – R1 million category. Gauteng’s Ekurhuleni was top in the R500 000 – R1 million category, while the City of Johannesburg came in at second in all categories.
The third largest number of properties under R500 000 were registered in Lesedi while Manguang in the Free State, and the City of Matlosana (Klerksdorp is the municipal seat) followed Ekurhuleni in this category.
In the R500 000 – R1 million price band, Emalahlenli in Mpumalanga and Polokwane in Limpopo followed eThekwini.
“In terms of new stock valued at more than R3 million, Western Cape towns accounted for nine of the top 20, most of which would be the destinations semigrants chose to move to. Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal each accounted for three,” she concludes.
