The square meterage of total industrial, retail, and office space building plans passed rose by +105.79% in January 2022, a further acceleration on the +61.87% year-on-year in December 2021. However, January 2022 levels of plans passed were still -42.5% down when compared to January 2020 levels.
While commercial property building stats can be volatile from month to month, FNB noticed a +38.2% increase in the twelve-month moving total to January 2022, up from +25.79% for the twelve months to December 2021 but post-lockdown levels of plans passed remain well below pre-pandemic levels.
For the twelve months to January 2022, square meterage of plans passed were still -14% below the twelve months to January 2020 and -29.5% down on the total plans passed for the twelve months to January 2018.
Building completions, lagging plans passed considerably, continued its year-on-year decline in January 2022 to the tune of -9.43%, which was a significantly smaller rate of decline than the -44.65% year-on-year decline in December 2021.
On a smooth twelve-month total basis, square meterage completed was slightly down by -0.47% year-on-year for the twelve months to January 2022, compared with a -6.21% decline for the twelve months to December 2021.
For the twelve months to January 2022 in total, square meterage completed was still weak by pre-Covid-19 standards, being -40.6% down on the twelve months to January 2020 and -40.3% down on the twelve months to January 2018 levels.
While total square metreage of commercial buildings completed declined for the twelve months to January 2022, positive growth in plans passed suggests that there may be some positive growth to come in building activity and completions this year.
Office space planning and completions continue to drag down overall commercial property building levels, remaining low compared to pre-lockdown levels. Plans passed in this sector declined by -17.9% year-on-year in January 2022, off a very low base a year prior. However, for the twelve months to January 2022, square meterage of office space plans grew year-on-year by +51.31% off 2020’s low base. While seemingly impressive, this growth remains -39.3% down on the twelve months to January 2020 and -57.9% down on the twelve months to January 2018.
For the twelve months to January 2022, square meterage of retail space plans passed were -12.24% down year-on-year. While a weaker growth outcome than in the case of office space, this sector had less of a decline during 2022 i.e., -26.2% down on the twelve months to January 2020 and -54.58% down on the twelve months to January 2018. However, retail still faces significant challenges.
Industrial building activity remains the least weak of the three sectors. Besides being the most affordable property class, it is boosted from greater online retail levels requiring an increased focus on logistics and warehousing, but its macro fundamentals remain weak with manufacturing GDP production remaining ‘mediocre’ and economy-wide inventory levels low due to years of economic stagnation. For the twelve months to January 2022, square meterage of industrial space plans passed were +59.55% up year-on-year, leaving this sector’s new space planning at only -3.2% down on the twelve months to January 2020 and -5.8% down on the twelve months to January 2018.
