This month sees the launch of the ‘Pam Golding Residential Property Index’, the first national quantitative analysis of house price inflation and which includes a comprehensive appraisal of the residential property market in South Africa and its many complexities.
Highlighting market movements and property value trends on a regular monthly basis, this is an accurate guide providing invaluable insights for anyone seeking information, whether potential purchasers or investors, existing property owners, property professionals or members of the media*.
“We believe this fills the need for an in-depth and unbiased analysis of national market information derived from some of the country’s most reputable and professional information sources,” says Dr Andrew Golding, chief executive of the Pam Golding Property group.
Initiated and developed by the Pam Golding Property group in association with expert market analysts, Lightstone, The Index is unique as it portrays an accurate, holistic snapshot of property pricing trends in the residential real estate market, rather than a confined view based purely on average sales data, and according to very specific market segments.
“The Index is based on the logical ‘repeat sales’ methodology – which is internationally recognised as the premier methodology for indexing house prices. This incorporates residential property transactions registered at the Deeds Office as well as other data sources across the country’s property market, and includes Pam Golding Properties’ extensive sales data.
“Rather than focusing purely on average price indices, as is commonly the case in the industry, we have utilized repeat sales indices as these provide an accurate and tangible measure of the actual price inflation of properties which have transacted at least twice within a specific period of time. In other words, we are literally comparing the price changes of the same properties over time, so it is a very accurate indication.”
“Given the cyclical nature of the property market and the significant impact of the recent recession, from which the market has emerged with customary resilience, we have included in this first edition an interesting interpretive analysis of current and past trends of the national market as a whole, as well as sub-indices of the major metropolitan regions around the country,” says Dr Golding.
All price segments are experiencing robust activity, and the index clearly indicates the acceleration in value growth of the R1 million and below price range, which for the year 2014 to date has taken off to an average high of 12 percent in overall national terms. Notably, across KwaZulu-Natal, the value increase in homes below R1 million has surged above 15 percent and is still climbing.
While value growth in higher priced properties of over R3 million has slowed down after a notable upturn, these continue to lead the market as they have done since the start of the market upswing back in 2000, reflecting average house price value gains of some 15 percent year on year. Somewhat surprisingly, the middle market for homes between R1 million and R2 million, has slowed, while the market for homes R2 million and upwards is holding up well and more or less tracking the national average.
The Index also notes the growing trend towards smaller homes as urban land scarcity puts upward pressure on property values – with the average size of a full title house reducing from almost 210sqm in 1970-1974 to just over 140sqm. In a similar vein and coupled with a move towards convenient, lock-up-and go, low maintenance accommodation, there has been a huge increase in sectional title homes built.
On the question of sustainability, The Index makes the point that, bearing in mind the potential impact of various macro-economic factors, a combination of increasing confidence, pent-up demand from a growing multi-racial middle class and the accelerating pace of urbanization suggests that the turnaround will last.